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Continue LogoutMedicare Advantage organizations are seeing rapid growth in specialist spend, which is impacting their bottom lines. This increased spend is due to the demographic pressures of a growing (and aging) MA population, which will add an additional $77 billion of specialist spend per year by 2030. Progressive MA organizations are beginning to experiment with techniques to better align specialist spend with value, but this will be much more difficult than bringing primary care physicians into value has been.
Specialist use in Medicare Advantage is in a period of rapid growth
The Medicare Advantage population will continue to grow at a faster rate than the general senior population over the next decade, while continuing to get older as the baby boomer generation ages.
These demographic shifts will have an effect on both the amount, and the type, of specialist use. Our projections are that both the population of seniors 75 and older, and those 65 to 74, will grow by at least 60% between 2020 and 2030. By 2035, the MA population will be almost evenly split between the older and younger seniors, after the baby boomer-fueled enrollment rates slow and that population ages.
The rapid growth in the size of the MA population during the 2020s is leading to an equally rapid growth in the use of specialist services, which will only begin to level off in the mid-2030s. In the absence of any changes in utilization rates after 2020, by the end of the current decade we expect to see 64% more specialist claims compared to 2020. Given the very high rates of fee-for-service payments for specialists, this accelerated growth in specialist use among MA members represents a massive increase in the amount of non-value-based spend for MA capitated risk holders.
Specialist spend will rapidly grow as a result of this move away from value
Because value-based care (VBC) is much less frequently used among specialists than among other providers, MA risk holders are already beginning to experience growing pressure on their bottom lines from their members’ specialist spend. Our model indicates that MA operators will take on an additional $114 billion per year in specialist spend alone by 2035, if utilization rates remain at 2020 levels.
That increase of $114 billion per year in specialty spend by 2035 will be driven primarily by inpatient specialist use among patients age 75 and older. That would account for only about 1% of the growth in overall specialist utilization between 2020 and 2035 but would contribute 43% of the increase in specialist spend. Put another way: the added 3,800 inpatient claims per day by seniors 75 and older in 2035 would generate 43% ($63 billion) of the total added MA specialist spend that year.
Entering a new era for the Medicare Advantage program
Medicare Advantage has now entered a period during which managing specialist use has become one of the most powerful market differentiators for risk-holders. This is due to the challenge of navigating the tension between a demographic-fueled increase in specialist demand and a financial environment characterized by slowing enrollment rates and tighter regulatory oversight. In such an environment, the ability to lower overall specialist cost per member by minimizing low-value specialist encounters, while maintaining or improving clinical outcomes, has become a powerful tool for success.
Aligning specialists to value is a more difficult endeavor than aligning PCPs to value, however. Innovations in senior-focused primary care by MA organizations, for example, have been welcomed by members – who get more time with their most trusted provider – while PCPs are given more resources and time to better care for their patients. Aligning specialists to value, however, typically entails less frequent member access to specialists, who in turn are asked to have fewer patient encounters despite benefiting for years from a volume-based compensation model that has been very lucrative for them.
The emerging strategy for success is a balance of growth and value
Aligning specialist spend to risk comes with many more challenges for MA risk-holders than aligning PCPs has, but not doing so is becoming an increasingly perilous strategy as well. Many MA risk-holders that choose to continue with an enrollment-growth-first strategy are making the assumption that there will be little regulatory or funding changes at the federal level for the foreseeable future, and that they can continue to maintain their MA margins through rapid enrollment growth in an increasingly saturated MA market with fewer new seniors entering it each year.
MA organizations will need to shift more of their focus to bending the cost curve per member. Aligning specialist spend with the organizations' overall capitated risk strategy is critical. After speaking with leaders at dozens of MA organizations, we have identified the three most essential tasks to succeed in MA risk. Read on to learn about these strategies and how different stakeholders have succeeded in tackling them.
To deploy a utilization management (UM) strategy, which enables a higher percentage of high-value specialist encounters while minimizing member frictions that may emerge from interventions into their specialist access.
Moving away from a UM strategy that relies most frequently on claims adjudication, especially retrospective claims adjudication, and toward one that leans more heavily on provider steerage to maximize high-value specialist visits. This can involve a combination of:
Moving providers into a more central role in an organization’s utilization management strategy requires considerable financial, administrative, and data-infrastructure support from the organization’s risk-bearing partners. Providers are most effective at minimizing their patients’ low-value specialist visits when they bear at least some of the downside risk themselves, but the majority of PCPs and specialists have limited experience navigating the challenges that bearing risk entails. Provider inexperience bearing risk, and resistance to being the face of shaping specialist access for patients, are some of the biggest hurdles for shifting away from a UM strategy based on payer claims adjudication and toward one focused on provider steerage.
Directing members into more managed networks (like HMOs), which can help payers proactively shape specialist visits by their members, has also proven to be a challenge in an MA market increasingly dominated by consumer-focused PPO plans. Members value their ability to retain their existing provider relationships when choosing an MA plan over all other factors, which has made more managed network products less popular than PPO-style plans in the past five years.
Many providers have been understandably reticent to move into downside risk, given the added administrative, financial, and data burdens that succeeding in downside risk entails. There is also a frequently held sense among providers that their risk-bearing partners have not given them sufficient support to succeed in the past, and providers remain wary of downside financial exposure in the face of uncertain upside benefits.
4 actions risk-bearing entities (RBEs) should take to enable their provider partners in this role:
3 actions that providers need to take before moving into this role:
Zing Health offers managed Medicare Advantage plans across the Midwest, including a high percentage of Chronic Condition Special Needs Plans (C-SNPs), which are well suited to address the clinical profile of historically underserved populations. Zing has been uniquely successful at both continuing to grow their market share in an MA market increasingly dominated by large, national plans as well as at moving a high percentage of their provider partners into downside risk. Currently 45% of Zing’s members are in a relationship with a fully capitated provider.
The keys to Zing’s provider-centric UM strategy:
To develop compensation models that can continue to engage specialists while lowering the volume of their patient encounters.
Moving away from specialist compensation models that place a large emphasis on production, typically via work relative value units (wRVUs), and toward a compensation model that involves more rewards for having fewer, but more high-value, patient encounters. This can involve a combination of incentives around:
Although complete value-based compensation for providers is still not the norm, it has historically been much less frequent among specialists compared to their PCP peers. Specialists have grown accustomed to the majority of their compensation coming from productivity metrics, typically wRVUs. Being compensated based on productivity, however, incentivizes maximizing the volume of patient encounters. Keeping specialists engaged while turning them away from this volume-based compensation model, which has proven so lucrative for many of them, is a significant financial and cultural challenge. Not only are many specialists reluctant to experiment with a greater mix of volume-reducing incentives in their compensation packages, but the vast majority of specialist physician organizations are inexperienced in the administrative, financial, and data practices required to succeed in risk-based contracts.
Bending the cost curve for health system-affiliated specialists can be particularly challenging, because financial incentives that are oriented toward reducing patient volumes can conflict with the financial imperatives of health systems to maintain sufficient patient volume to cover their facility-related costs. Even specialists who are not affiliated with health-systems have resisted the shift toward less-value centric compensation models, however.
Getting specialists to buy into compensation packages that incentivize limiting patient encounters remains one of the most difficult tasks MA organizations face when trying to bend their specialist cost curve.
Broadlawn Medical (pseudonym) is a physician group focused on preventive care for seniors, and is comprised of primary and multispecialty clinics, including contracted medical management services. It provides care to over 750,000 patients across three states, and partners with multiple Medicare Advantage plans as well as traditional Medicare.
Broadlawn often takes on global, capitated risk in their contracts with MA plans. In this situation, Broadlawn deploys two different value-focused payment structures for their specialists, depending on whether or not the specialist is the primary coordinating entity for Broadlawn’s patients and the size of the patient population for that specialty.
A typical example of a value-focused payment for a specialist group that is the primary coordinating entity for their members is oncology, where Broadlawn passes along fully capitated risk that includes some or all of the following:
For specialist groups that are not the primary coordinating entity for Broadlawn’s members, Broadlawn uses a bundled payment model that incorporates risk for the above costs but assessed on a per patient/episode of care.
Physician compensation includes a bonus from any savings relative to the capitated payment, plus more targeted incentives (if the capitated goals are met) that align with Medicare Star ratings:
To be as efficient as possible at allocating specialist resources for the MA membership, while maintaining or improving population-level clinical outcomes.
Building out a data infrastructure that can more accurately and comprehensively paint a data picture of each member so they can be placed in a risk pool that best reflects the type and amount of specialist resources. Building out this data infrastructure can involve a number of moments, including:
Creating a data infrastructure that can be effective at orienting specialists toward higher-value clinical encounters requires significant cross-stakeholder coordination before the actual patient encounter. There are three areas where this has proven particularly challenging for MA operators:
Medicare Advantage organizations must be able to paint an accurate, timely, and comprehensive data picture of their members to be able to deploy specialist resources efficiently. Building that data picture requires a high level of cross-stakeholder collaboration, however. This collaboration includes:
Palmer Health (pseudonym) is a nonprofit community health system that operates four hospitals in the northwestern United States. The organization also includes several health plans (including Medicare Advantage) and a multispecialty group, which combined make Palmer Health the largest multispecialty physician group in the region. In 2020, Palmer partnered with a third-party organization to help the health system move toward a more value-based care orientation.
Palmer Health deploys two data-centric approaches to control their specialist spend:
After 15 years of rapid enrollment growth, the MA program is entering a new paradigm marked by lower rates of new enrollees, a more saturated and regulated MA market, and an older MA population. In this new paradigm, MA organizations that take a more balanced approach to growth and value will be better positioned to succeed. With a projected increase of over 154 million specialist claims in MA between 2020 and 2030 — the vast majority of which remain fee-for-service — the ability of MA organizations to transition more of their specialist spend to value-based payments is becoming one of their most powerful tools to finding a better balance of value and growth.
Succeeding in the three core strategies we’ve discussed above is key to bending the specialist cost curve, but even the most seasoned MA operators are finding this no easy task. Success in bringing more value to their specialist spend requires both an iterative approach, in which lessons learned from early experiments are incorporated into further experiments, and an acknowledgement that these three separate strategies are deeply intertwined with one another. A UM strategy that emphasizes provider steerage over payer claims adjudication will only succeed, for example, if those providers have the best data picture of their patients, and are able to retain their relationships with local specialists despite their reduced referral volumes.
MA organizations have succeeded, and continue to succeed, in moving more of their PCP partners into value. That has been the easy part. Moving more of their specialist partners into value requires reshaping a relationship that both members and specialists would prefer remain untouched — and if mishandled can alienate one or both stakeholders.
Despite the risk of alienating stakeholders, progressive MA organizations are pushing forward with moving specialists into value because they understand that there is an even greater risk in doing nothing. MA organizations won't be able to maintain their rapid rates of enrollment growth indefinitely. MA organizations need to find a balanced approach to growth and value — and they need to begin experimenting with value-based strategies now.
Our analysis used a combination of medical claims data from the Optum* de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (CDM) and external sources to estimate the care needs of the Medicare Advantage (MA) population between 2020 and 2030. (Advisory Board is a subsidiary of Optum. All Advisory Board research, expert perspectives, and recommendations remain independent.)
Population estimates
Size of the current population is based on data from the Census Bureau.
Size of the future MA population is based on projected growth of the general 65+ population and the impact of beneficiaries switching between MA and traditional Medicare.
Utilization estimates
To determine current MA utilization we first calculated current utilization by MA beneficiary as number of healthcare claims divided by number of beneficiaries in the CDM data set. We then multiplied current utilization by the current MA population. Due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare utilization, we applied 2021 utilization estimates to the 2020 MA population.
To project future MA utilization, we applied a future healthcare utilization rate to the future MA population. Future healthcare utilization rate was calculated by multiplying the current utilization rate defined above by Advisory Board’s 10-year growth rate in healthcare use for the 65+ population. This 10-year use rate change is based on the following non-demographic drivers: readmission, disease prevalence, insurance, care management, and technology. More information can be found in the Market Scenario Planner tool.
Cost estimates
Cost estimates are derived from the Optum CDM data set and reflect allowed payments across all provider services. To account for differences in pricing across health plans and provider contracts, a standard pricing algorithm is applied to the claims data.
Current and future cost estimates are calculated by applying average standard cost per claim to current and future utilization. As such, future cost is determined only by changes to the population and health care utilization.
Service definitions
Inpatient claims are grouped to service lines based on MS-DRG assignment, where one “volume” represents one inpatient discharge. Outpatient claims are grouped to service lines based on Advisory Board’s proprietary grouping methodology, where one “volume” represents a distinct outpatient service. More information and access to both groupers can be found on our Data and analytics references page. Specialty services include all inpatient medical services and all outpatient services except for evaluation and management. Miscellaneous and lab services were excluded from the analysis.
We used facility claims for inpatient hospital data and professional claims for outpatient data limited to the hospital outpatient department (HOPD), ambulatory surgery center (ASC), physician's office, and clinic care sites.
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