In a new classified intelligence report, the Department of Energy (DOE) concluded that COVID-19 was the result of an accidental lab leak in China. However, this assessment was made with "low confidence," and experts as well as various government agencies have yet to reach a consensus on the virus's origins.

What the Energy Department's report reveals

According to the Wall Street Journal, the DOE has updated its assessments on the origins of COVID-19 in light of new intelligence, further study, and consultations of outside experts. Although the agency had previously been undecided on the matter, it has now concluded the virus likely emerged from an accidental lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Although officials have not disclosed what the intelligence was, the New York Times reports that the DOE relied on its network of national laboratories, some of which conduct biological research, for its information rather than more traditional intelligence gathering methods.

However, officials who were briefed on the intelligence said it was relatively weak, and the DOE noted in its report that the judgement was made with "low confidence" — which suggests that its overall level of certainty is not high.

So far, there has not been a consensus among U.S. federal agencies about COVID-19's origins. While the DOE and the FBI both conclude that the coronavirus first emerged from an unintended lab leak, four other agencies, as well as the National Intelligence Council, assess with "low confidence" that the virus was the result of natural transmission from an infected animal. Two other agencies, including the CIA, remain undecided.

"There is a variety of views in the intelligence community," said Jake Sullivan, a U.S. national security advisor. "Some elements of the intelligence community have reached conclusions on one side, some on the other. A number of them have said they just don’t have enough information to be sure."

"[R]ight now, there is not a definitive answer that has emerged from the intelligence community on this question," he added.

Reaction

According to the Times, many Republicans have long supported the theory that the coronavirus emerged from a lab leak, and a new Republican-led congressional subcommittee on the COVID-19 pandemic will likely focus on the theory during its hearings, which will begin in March.

"Evidence has been piling up for over a year in favor of the lab leak hypothesis," said Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), who sits on the House Intelligence Committee and leads a new House committee on China. "I am glad some of our agencies are starting to listen to common sense and change their assessment."

For their part, health experts have said the new findings do not provide much new evidence for either the lab leak or natural transmission theories for COVID-19's origins.

"When an agency comes out and says they're leaning this way but with 'low confidence?' I mean, how do you interpret that?" said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. "The question is: 'Why did you even put it out there?'"

"It's going to go back and forth, back and forth," Osterholm added. "This echo chamber will make it appear that those who believe it was a lab leak will have more and more evidence and those who believe it was a natural spillover will have more and more evidence. But in fact, there's not new evidence at all."

"As I said before, I am willing to reconsider my hypothesis if presented with verifiable, affirmative evidence," said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization. "For now, I see no evidence that suggests the current scientific evidence base is incorrect. And that evidence base continues to suggest the pandemic originated via zoonotic spillover at the Huanan market."

Other health experts have welcomed the updated findings, which could help researchers better understand threats that could lead to future outbreaks or other health crises.

"Kudos to those who are willing to set aside their preconceptions and objectively re-examine what we know and don’t know about Covid origins," David Relman, a microbiologist at Stanford University who has served on several federal scientific advisory boards. "My plea is that we not accept an incomplete answer or give up because of political expediency." (Reed et al., Axios, 2/27; Gordon/Strobel, Wall Street Journal, 2/26; Barnes, New York Times, 2/26; Mueller, The Hill, 2/26 [1]; Mueller, The Hill, 2/26)