You've probably seen the headlines asserting that Covid-19 has spurred a wave of early retirements among clinicians. However, when we dug into the data for physicians, we found conflicting results. While some sources report that physicians are retiring earlier than originally planned, others find that physicians are delaying it due to economic concerns. Taken together, it seems that the jury is still out when it comes to the pandemic's impact on early retirement.
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However, we will see more physician retirements—unrelated to Covid-19. This is due to a trend that's been in motion since well before the pandemic: the physician workforce skews older and continues to age. As you can see in the first chart below, the percentage of active physicians 55+ increased from 37.6% in 2008 to 44.9% in 2019.
This trend is particularly alarming in certain specialties. In the second graph, we've highlighted the ten specialties with the largest percentage of physicians 55 or older. Take pulmonary disease for instance. Over 90% of practicing doctors are 55 or older. And this is a stark increase from 2010 when only 38% of physicians in the specialty were 55+.
Figure 1. Source: AAMC
Figure 2. Source: AAMC
At the same time, we've heard more and more about the "pre-retirement" cohort during our research. It's a newer term used to describe physicians about 10-15 years out from retirement. Anecdotally, we've heard that this cohort is more likely to make career changes, as they move to their preferred retirement destinations and gradually ramp down their practice.
These demographic changes will drive major shifts in the physician workforce across the next 10-15 years. While this trend is already well underway, executives have time to prepare and can take meaningful steps to mitigate the impact on our workforce and patients.
The clinical workforce is at a crisis point. The Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing challenges to workforce stability, causing more staff members than ever to decide that now is the time to leave their roles, some even leaving the industry altogether.
We need a path forward. As an industry, we must find a sustainable way to care for our communities. And as leaders, we have to better understand our clinical care team members needs—and meet those needs to engage our teams in fulfilling our mission.
Join us at an interactive, interdisciplinary summit to explore how the various pieces of the clinical workforce—nursing, physician, and clinical support—can fit together in new ways. Discover the current dynamics of the workforce market and look toward the future to align two critical elements: organizational strategy and individual career satisfaction.
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