As the infant formula shortage continues to worsen, particularly for low-income families, U.S. officials have announced several new shipments of overseas infant formula—but experts estimate there will be "less than six weeks of shortfall" available even with these new supplies.

Cheat sheet: Infant health inequity

Officials announce new formula imports as the shortage worsens

Over the last few months, supply chain and staffing problems have contributed to a growing shortage of infant formula—a situation that was further exacerbated by a recall of several formulas produced by Abbott Nutrition, which makes up almost 50% of the market.

According to research from Datasembly, the national out-of-stock rate for infant formula has only worsened over the last few weeks, going 43% to 73.6% between May 8 and May 28. In some states, including Arizona, California, Georgia, and Mississippi, the out-of-stock rate has reached almost 95%.

To help ease the shortage, the Biden administration has so far implemented several measures to increase both supply and production of infant formula in the United States.

For example, President Joe Biden last month invoked the Defense Production Act, which requires suppliers to "direct needed resources to infant formula manufacturers before any other customer who may have ordered that good."

On Wednesday, Biden met virtually with industry representatives from Bubs Australia, Reckitt, Gerber, Perrigo Company, and ByHeart to gauge their progress in increasing formula production in the country. At the meeting, Perrigo and Mead Johnson, which is owned by Reckitt, reported shipping 30% or more infant formula than they did a year ago to meet the surging demand.

In addition to these efforts to increase production, the administration also launched "Operation Fly Formula" to import formula from overseas. So far, 1.5 million 8-ounce bottles of three Nestlé S.A. infant formulas have arrived in the country.

Over the next few weeks, several more shipments of formula are expected to arrive. This includes 3.7 million bottles of Kendamil formula from Kendal Nutricare, a U.K.-based company, and approximately 4.6 million bottles of formula from Bubs Australia. According to administration officials, more deliveries of Bubs formula will be announced in the coming days.

Tinglong Dai, a professor of operations management and business analytics at Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School, said these new shipments could meet the United States' formula needs for roughly six weeks—but consumers' current purchasing behavior will likely reduce the supply much more quickly.

"If I'm a parent who needs to buy baby formula, I would buy any formula that I could find," Dai said.  "That means there will probably be much less than six weeks of shortfall made available here."

Low-income families have been hit the hardest by the shortage

According to government officials, low-income families have been hit the hardest by the infant formula shortage, particularly those who rely on subsidies rely on subsidies from the federal Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program to purchase formula.

In 2021, 1.5 million infants—or around half of all babies in the United States—received WIC benefits. These families are also buying the bulk of formula, making up between 50% and 65% of all formula purchases, NPR reports. Under the programs, recipients can only purchase formula from a state-contracted manufacturer, meaning that they cannot easily switch brands if the approved brand becomes unavailable.

"This crisis, which is truly a manufacturing sector failure, has impacted all parents of formula-fed infants, but it magnifies the disparities that have long existed," said Brian Dittmeier, senior director of public policy at the National WIC Association. "Searching for formula has to an extent become a full-time job, and low-income families that are working two jobs already may not have the bandwidth to fully invest in the search."

In addition, health experts say the current formula shortage underscores many structural barriers that keep millions of women from breastfeeding. According to Ifeyinwa Asiodu, an assistant professor at the University of California, San Francisco, around 25% of low-income individuals go back to work two weeks after giving birth. Many workplaces also do not offer lactation accommodations, such as on-site lactation rooms.

"People are saying, 'Why don't they breastfeed?'" said Tess Frear, executive director of Helping Mamas, a baby supply bank in Tennessee. "Well, maybe they can't breastfeed at their job or maybe there is some other circumstance where they cannot breastfeed. There's just a variety of reasons why people cannot."

In the future, Asiodu said more policies to support breastfeeding and allow greater access to human milk at milk banks, as well as more flexibility in WIC programs, are needed to help families and their children.

"I think it's really important that we allow families to make the decisions that really best fit their needs, and also provide resources along the way," no matter what feeding option they choose, she said. (Stamm/Linke, Wall Street Journal, 6/1; Szalinski, Kaiser Health News, 6/3; Breslow, NPR, 6/2; Lee, Politico, 6/1; Shear/Creswell, New York Times, 6/1; Weixel, The Hill, 6/1)