According to Rinne, "[f]or as much as we like to talk about 'managing' change and uncertainty, we are not very good at simply 'being' with these things. Our relationship to uncertainty is fraught: We don't tolerate not-knowing well, and this hinders our ability to show up, to find new solutions, and to thrive."

However, organizations that encourage their teams to focus on a "change mindset" and implement a simple tool designed to "reframe how you address the future" will be better equipped for the future, Rinne notes.

'Change mindset drives change management'

Since it was first defined in the early 1900s, change management has included a wide range of processes, systems, and spreadsheets that give many people "a sense that [they] are in control" Rinne writes, "including control of forces and factors that are beyond anyone's control." However, this illusion was shattered when the pandemic underscored the shortcomings of this approach.

"Moving forward, many improvements are needed to redesign a range of systems to align and engage with the world as it is (rather than an imaginary world of human omnipotence)," Rinne writes.

While there is not a problem with a specific process or framework, many management tools do not consider key factors, including how people feel about change or uncertainty, and whether they have the mental muscles to handle uncertainty.

"Our ability to manage change hinges on our ability to manage ourselves, including our fears and anxieties," Rinne writes. "These factors drive everything else — in business and in life."

Still, these factors are often omitted from traditional change management.

When facing a change-related challenge, Rinne suggests asking yourself, "Am I approaching this from a place of hope or fear? What is driving me? What is my orientation to this change? And how might my orientation differ from my teammates or direct reports?" instead of simply jumping straight to "What do I do about this?"

According to Rinne, answering these questions can help team members learn more about each other, strengthen team culture, and lead to better decisions.

"Change mindset drives change management, not the other way around," Rinne writes.

Shifting from 'What is' to 'What if'

One of the "most consistent stumbling blocks" Rinne sees is an emphasis on trying to predict "the" future. "The quest for certainty and finding 'the' answer often blinds us to a much bigger universe of possible solutions," she notes.

Ultimately, there is not just one possible future. "[T]here are many different possible futures that each and every person is bringing into being every day (whether you realize it or not)," Rinne writes.

To prepare for future possible outcomes, Rinne encourages organizations to shift away from trying to predict "the" future. According to Rinne, one of the most effective ways to develop this skill is through a process called scenario planning.

"This simple yet powerful tool is designed to help teams and organizations imagine what could happen," she notes. "It's a shift from 'what is' to 'what if.'"

For scenario planning, organizations can create a map that includes two key variables of uncertainty, with four quadrants representing potential scenarios.

"The point is not that any one scenario represents 'the' future. Rather, scenario mapping helps you imagine and contemplate all the different ways the future  could   play out — and to prepare accordingly," Rinne writes. "It's a key feature of your futures-thinking muscle — your change mindset."

According to Rinne, "[h]elping your team develop and strengthen their change mindset is neither overwhelming nor trite."

"All of these steps boost your 'flux capacity' (your tolerance for change) and contribute to your future success," she notes. (Rinne, Harvard Business Review, 5/18)

While most people tend to rely on proven solutions when they encounter "unfamiliar, high-stakes situations," new problems often require new solutions. Writing for the Harvard Business Review, Jacqueline Brassey and Aaron De Smet outline three skills to help you adapt to "better overcome the obstacles posed by our old habits."