Cancer rates on the rise

According to the report, over 611,000 deaths from cancer are projected to occur in the United States in 2024, which amounts to more than 1,600 deaths each day and represents an increase from a projected 609,820 deaths in 2023.

The rise in cancer rates is largely driven by the aging and growth of the population and the rise in diagnoses of six cancers:

• Breast cancer
• Prostate cancer
• Endometrial cancer
• Pancreatic cancer
• Kidney cancer
• Melanoma

In addition, ACS found there has been a rise in cancer diagnoses among younger people. People ages 65 and older represent a growing proportion of the overall population but a decreasing proportion of new cancer cases. In 1995, those ages 65 and older accounted for 61% of all cancer diagnoses, but during 2019 to 2020, that number dropped to 58%. Cancer rates for those ages 50 to 64 remained relatively stable.

But during that same period, "people aged younger than 50 years were the only one of these three age groups to experience an increase in overall cancer incidence," the report said.

"It's overwhelming for anybody, but especially for these younger patients who are going on with their daily lives and then suddenly get this life-altering diagnosis and really don't know where to turn," said Robin Mendelsohn, co-director of the Center for Young Onset Colorectal and Gastrointestinal Cancers at Memorial Sloan Kettering. "Many feel alone because they're younger, their friends, many haven't had to deal with this."

The report noted that new cases of prostate, liver, kidney, and HPV-associated oral cancers and melanoma increased from 2% to 3% each year between 2015 and 2019. Meanwhile, cases of breast, pancreas, and uterine cancers increased between 0.6% and 1% each year during the same period.

ACS specifically noted the rise in colorectal cancer diagnoses among people younger than 50. In the late 1990s, colorectal cancer represented the fourth leading cause of death in men and women among those younger than 50. Now, colorectal cancer is the leading cause of death in men younger than 50 and second cause of death among women in that age group.

Experts are unsure as to why rates of colorectal cancers are increasing. "We don't have a good explanation," said William Dahut, chief scientific officer at ACS. "We do a lot of hand waving. Is it diet? Is it obesity? Is it something in the environment? Is it in utero exposure?"

Researchers are looking into whether long-term factors like consumption of ultra-processed food or red meat, medication and vitamin use, and obesity are contributing to the rise.

"Cancer obviously takes time to grow, especially colon cancer," Mendelsohn said. "So we think it's probably exposures from decades prior."

A paper recently published in JAMA found that death rates for breast cancer have dropped from 48 per 100,000 women in 1975 to 27 per 100,000 in 2019, including metastatic breast cancer, which accounted for almost 30% of the reduction in the breast cancer death rate.

Death rates have also declined among women in their 40s who typically did not have regular mammograms, according to Mette Kalager, a professor of medicine at the University of Oslo and Oslo University Hospital, "indicating a substantial effect of treatment."

"The biggest untold story in breast cancer is how much treatment has improved," said H. Gilbert Welch, a cancer epidemiologist at Brigham and Women's Hospital. "This is unambiguous good news." (Collins, American Cancer Society release, 1/17; Reed, Axios, 1/17; Kolata, New York Times, 1/17)

Other oncology resources

For more on oncology, check out these Advisory Board resources:

• 5 strategic decisions facing oncology leaders
• Top drivers of change in the oncology market
• 6 questions shaping the future of oncology screening and diagnostics
• 4 predictions for cancer care in 2030
• Oncology Dashboard Toolkit