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 We are pausing publication of The Daily Briefing out of respect for the tragic passing of Brian Thompson. We will resume publication of this daily newsletter in the coming days.

Daily Briefing

5 states with races to watch in the upcoming elections


By Ben Palmer, Editor

During the 2024 election season, the national races have gotten the most attention, but state legislatures are becoming increasingly important for a variety of healthcare-related issues.

States with partisan trifectas — meaning states where a single party controls the governorship as well as majorities in both houses of the state legislature — can more easily pass pieces of legislation that align with their party's agenda. Alternatively, if a partisan trifecta is ended by one chamber or another changing party hands, wish list items of one party will become more difficult to pass.

Here are the five state legislatures that are slated to be very close and could result in party control of the statehouse changing hands in 2025.

1. Arizona

Senate: 16 R, 14 D

House: 31 R, 29 D

Governor: Katie Hobbs (D)

Arizona has been a major focus of political attention, especially after its shift from supporting former President Donald Trump in the 2016 election to supporting President Joe Biden in 2020. The state is also hosting a competitive U.S. Senate election between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and former Republican gubernatorial candidate, Kari Lake.

Republicans currently have narrow control of the state legislature, and Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs set a record during the 2023 legislative session for the most vetoes in Arizona history. All members of both the Arizona Senate and House are up for reelection this year, and if Democrats flip both chambers it will mark the first time since 1966 the party has a trifecta in the state legislature.

Abortion has been a major issue in Arizona, especially following the Arizona Supreme Court's decision in April ruling that the state must adhere to an 1864 law barring all abortions except in cases when "it is necessary to save" a pregnant person's life. Arizona has a measure on the ballot in this election that, if approved, would amend the state's constitution to provide for a fundamental right to abortion.

2. Michigan

Senate: 20 D, 18 R

House: 56 D, 54 R

Governor: Gretchen Whitmer (D)

Michigan is slated to be one of the key battleground states in the presidential election and is currently hosting a competitive U.S. Senate race between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers, who previously served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2015.

In Michigan, Democrats currently hold a trifecta. There are no state Senate elections this year, but all members of the state House are up for election, meaning there's a possibility Republicans could flip the chamber.

According to Politico, Republicans are specifically targeting state House seats currently held by Democrats in districts that Trump won in 2016 and 2020, alongside another 10 seats Trump previously won.

3. Minnesota

Senate: 33 D, 33 R

House: 70 D, 64 R

Governor: Tim Walz (D)

In 2022, Democrats increased their majority in the Minnesota House from 69-63 to 70-64 and flipped the state Senate from a 34-33 Republican majority to a 34-33 Democratic majority, giving Democrats a trifecta in the legislature.

Since then, Democrats have passed several laws, including a child tax credit, universal free school lunches, and paid family and medical leave.

Only one seat in the Minnesota Senate is currently up for election, as state Sen. Kelly Morrison (D) stepped down to run for U.S. Congress. A special election is slated for November to fill that seat, which has the potential to flip the state Senate for the Republican party. Meanwhile, all seats in the state House are up for election, giving Republicans the chance to flip the chamber.

4. New Hampshire

Senate: 14 R, 10 D

House: 201 R, 194 D

Governor: Chris Sununu (R)

In the 2022 elections, Republicans expanded their majority by one seat in the New Hampshire state Senate and expanded their majority in the state House as well.

However, New Hampshire's Senate and House have been known for frequently flipping partisan control. Since 2008, the state's Senate has flipped three times, and the House has flipped five times.

This year, every part of the state's legislature is up for election — every seat in the Senate, every seat in the House, and the governorship as well, as current Gov. Chris Sununu isn't running for reelection. Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, is running against former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig, a Democrat, for governor.

5. Pennsylvania

Senate: 28 R, 22 D

House: 102 D, 101 R

Governor: Josh Shapiro (D)

Pennsylvania is another state slated to be a major battleground for the presidential election as well as the U.S. Senate, with a race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick.

On the state level, Pennsylvania is the only state in the country that currently has a split legislature, with Republicans in control of the state Senate and Democrats narrowly in control of the state House.

In 2022, Republicans maintained their 28 seats in the state Senate while Democrats picked up an independent seat increasing their minority to 22. Meanwhile, Democrats were able to gain a majority in the Pennsylvania House in 2022.

This year, every seat in the Pennsylvania House is up for election as are 25 of the seats in the state Senate. Of those 25 state Senate seats, 10 are currently held by Democrats and 15 are currently held by Republicans. According to Politico, around a dozen of the Pennsylvania House districts are likely to be competitive, with Democrats focusing on the Philadelphia area and Republicans focusing on western part of the state.


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