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Currently, the number of flu cases nationwide is low, but health experts recommend people get vaccinated before the end of October to stay protected during peak flu season. Without sufficient vaccine uptake, the United States will likely see significant viral activity from the flu, COVID-19, and more this winter.
Where the flu currently stands in the US
According to CDC data, seasonal flu activity is still low nationwide. The number of positive flu tests reported to clinical labs for the week ending Oct. 19 was 0.7%. Meanwhile, the percentage of outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses was 2.1%, below the national baseline of 3%.
So far, the only jurisdiction that is reporting moderate activity for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) is the District of Columbia. All other areas of the United States either have low or minimal ILI activity.
Although flu cases are currently low, health experts say that a surge in both flu and COVID-19 cases are likely on the way as the winter months get closer. Typically, flu activity is highest between December and February. COVID-19 cases may also rise again in December and January after an uptick in cases during the summer.
In general, the severity of viral illnesses this winter will be impacted by vaccine uptake. According to CDC Director Mandy Cohen, if this year's vaccine uptake is like last year's, the United States could face a dangerous winter.
"If last season is any prediction of this season, that means 800,000 hospitalizations of flu, COVID and RSV," Cohen said. "We know that these vaccines can cut the risk of hospitalization in half."
How effective is this year's flu vaccine?
Currently, CDC recommends everyone ages six months and older be vaccinated against the flu by the end of October so the protection can take effect before peak flu season begins.
"Ideally before January is what's best," said Kate Kirley, a family physician and director of chronic disease prevention at the American Medical Association. "But we'll tell people all throughout flu season, if you haven't gotten the vaccine yet, it's still OK to get it and you're likely to benefit as long as influenza viruses are circulating."
During the 2023-2024 flu season, the national flu vaccination rate was 47.2%. Massachusetts and the District of Columbia reported the highest flu vaccination rates at 62.2%, while Mississippi reported the lowest vaccination rate at 33.7%.
Based on data from the Southern Hemisphere, this year's flu vaccine was 34.5% effective against hospitalization in high-risk groups, which was largely comparable to the effectiveness of other flu vaccines from the past few years. According to CDC researchers, "health authorities might anticipate similar levels of protection" in the Northern Hemisphere if it sees similar patterns of viral flu strains.
"Overall, flu vaccination reduced the risk of hospitalization by about one-third, which would have a significant impact on disease burden," said David Daigle, a CDC spokesperson. "Receiving a flu vaccine can offer significant protection against severe outcomes.
According to Kirley, people can also get vaccinated against the flu and COVID-19 at the same time. "People heading to their doctor's office or pharmacy for their COVID vaccine can also get their influenza vaccine at the same visit," she said. This means "people can get their flu shot on the same day—it's safe and effective, so there’s no need to make multiple trips."
"Every year, influenza causes hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths in the United States," Kirley said, adding that "it's important to do everything we can to keep people out of the hospital and getting a flu shot is one of the best things we can do to stay healthy during flu season."
Overall, health experts recommend that people get vaccinated against the flu not just to protect themselves, but to protect those around them.
"The flu vaccine is most effective for all of us when more of us get it, so we can get closer to achieving—at least for flu season—that herd immunity," Kirley said. "Getting the flu shot is not just doing something for yourself, but it definitely is a way you can contribute to good health in your community." (CDC Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report, accessed 10/28; Martichoux, The Hill, 10/27; Bean, Becker's Hospital Review, 10/14; Fiore, MedPage Today, 10/18; Berg, American Medical Association, 10/4)
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