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Cancer cases and deaths are projected to increase worldwide by 2050 but will increase the most in low- and middle-income countries that may have less access to healthcare or cancer treatments, according to a recent study published in JAMA Network Open.
Study details
For the study, researchers looked at data from 36 cancer types across 185 countries and territories using the Global Cancer Observatory database.
They then collected data on how many people are getting cancer and how many are dying relative to the population, adjusting the numbers to account for differences in age distributions among the population, a measure called the Mortality to Incidence Ratio.
To project how cancer rates could change by 2050, researchers used population projections from the United Nations. They assumed rates of getting cancer would stay the same and applied those rates to the expected larger and older population in 2050.
The researchers estimated that cancer rates are projected to increase by almost 77% from 2022 to 2050, reaching 35.3 million cases worldwide. In addition, cancer deaths will hit 18.5 million, representing a nearly 90% increase between 2022 and 2050.
Disparities in cancer rates and deaths are expected to worsen worldwide as well. The researchers estimated that cancer cases and deaths would increase in Africa at a rate five times faster than in Europe.
The researchers also projected that death rates will rise 146% in low-income countries, 91% in high-income countries, and 57% in very-high income countries, including the United States.
Of the various types of cancer, the researchers projected lung cancer would continue to be the most widespread and deadliest form globally in 2050. Deaths from prostate cancer are also expected to increase 136% between 2022 and 2050, more than any other cancer type. Meanwhile, rates of nonmelanoma skin cancer are projected to increase by nearly 119%, the most of any cancer type.
In addition, while men are already more likely than women to get cancer and die from it worldwide, those gaps are expected to get worse by around 16% and 8% in 2050, respectively.
According to the researchers, the COVID-19 pandemic derailed cancer prevention and treatment efforts around the world, and continued wars as well as cost-of-living crises have disrupted interventions even further.
They added that "strengthening health care access and quality, including universal health insurance coverage, and health care systems in the prevention, early diagnosis, management, and treatment of cancer will be paramount for improving clinical outcomes and slowing projected trends."
Advisory Board's oncology resources
For more insights on oncology, check out these Advisory Board resources:
Growth in demand and costs, as well new technologies and disruptors, will change how cancer care is delivered, experienced, and paid for going forward. This resource outlines four predictions for how the cancer care delivery landscape will evolve by 2030.
Separately, this market insight explains three strategies organizations can use to leverage oncology pharmacists and improve cancer care. Similarly, these ready-to-use slides outline the major structural shifts impacting cancer care, as well as the strategic decisions that oncology leaders will need to make.
You can search through our oncology topics to see more related resources, including service line outlooks, case studies, and more. (Goldman, Axios, 11/6; Jackson, Medical Xpress, 11/7)
Achieving health equity has been a mission imperative for cancer programs for a while now, and many cancer programs have implemented one-off initiatives to address health disparities. Explore our resources and insights to learn how to elevate health equity to be a strategic business imperative for your cancer program, identify health disparities among your cancer patients, and address those disparities within your local community.
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