Study details and key findings

For the study, researchers analyzed current and future data on female breast cancer in 46 countries worldwide. They compared 2022 incidence and mortality numbers to projected figures for 2050.

Overall, the researchers found that the number of breast cancer cases worldwide is expected to increase by 38% by 2050. At the same time, the number of deaths from the disease is expected to increase by 68%. In total, the researchers estimate that there will be 3.2 million new breast cancer cases and 1.1 million deaths a year worldwide by 2050 if the current trends continue.

In the United States, breast cancer cases are expected to increase from almost 275,000 in 2022 to over 350,000 in 2050. During the same period, deaths are expected to increase from almost 43,000 to nearly 64,000.

Although the researchers found that breast cancer mortality rates are expected to decrease in 29 of the 46 countries analyzed, only seven countries will likely be able to meet the World Health Organization's cancer mortality reduction target of 2.5% per year. In addition, seven countries may see their breast cancer mortality rates increase, with four of them among the least developed based on criteria from the Human Development Index.

Commentary

The researchers have called for better cancer surveillance in less-developed countries, many of which could not be included in the study due to a lack of data.

"This report highlights the urgent need for high-quality cancer data and accurate records of the number of new diagnoses and outcomes in countries with low and medium HDI," said Isabelle Soerjomataram, deputy head of IARC's cancer surveillance branch."

"Continued progress in early diagnosis and improved access to treatment are essential to address the global gap in breast cancer and ensure that the goal of reducing suffering and death from breast cancer is achieved by all countries worldwide," she added.

Separately, Jon Shelton, head of cancer intelligence at Cancer Research UK, said more research "will help us detect breast cancer early and find new treatments to beat the disease."

"There are steps you can take to reduce your risk of breast cancer, such as not smoking, keeping a healthy weight and cutting down on alcohol," Shelton added. "And if you notice anything that's not normal for you, talk to your doctor. It probably won’t be cancer but if it is, spotting it early means that treatment is more likely to be successful."