RFK Jr. vows to discover cause of autism 'epidemic' by September

In a televised Cabinet meeting last week, Kennedy said HHS has "launched a massive testing and research effort that's going to involve hundreds of scientists from around the world. By September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic and we'll be able to eliminate those exposures."

In an interview with Fox News, Kennedy added, "We are going to look at vaccines, but we are going to look at everything. Everything is on the table. Our food system, our water, our air, different ways of parenting, all the kind of changes that may have triggered this epidemic."

Autism rates have been steadily rising over the years. In 2000, roughly 1 in 150 children in the United States born in 1992 were diagnosed with autism. In 2020, 1 in 36 children born in 2012 were diagnosed, according to CDC data. At the Cabinet meeting, Kennedy said new data yet to be released indicates that autism rates have further risen to 1 in 31 children.

Autism experts say the rise could largely be due to better screening and diagnoses. In 2007, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommended universal screening of toddlers for autism. Autism has also been misdiagnosed due to overlapping symptoms with other mental health conditions like ADHD or selective mutism, which is an anxiety disorder.

Experts also say the rise in autism could be influenced by more than better detection, potentially including women taking medications during pregnancy that can affect a developing fetus and older fathers being more likely to pass along genetic mutations. However, the validity and extent of those factors are still being studied.

In his interview with Fox News, Kennedy downplayed the role of genetics. "We know it is an environmental toxin that is causing this cataclysm," he said.

Some experts express skepticism, concern

Many experts said that the Trump administration's timeline for discovering the cause of autism was unrealistic given the complexity of the condition.

"It's like saying, 'By September we are going to know the cause of cancer,'" said Peter Hotez, a pediatrician and author of "Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel's Autism," a book about his daughter that looked at the evidence around the genetic basis of autism. "Autism is every bit as complicated as cancer, and that's how it needs to be discussed."

Peter Marks, the former top vaccine official at FDA, said that autism is "an incredibly complicated issue."

"If you just ask me, as a scientist, is it possible to get the answer that quickly? I don't see any possible way," he said, adding that "giving people false hope is something you should never do. You can be incredible supportive of people, but giving them false hope is wrong."

Philip Landrigan, a pediatrician and expert on environmental toxins, noted that mass layoffs at HHS and cutbacks for research means making quick progress on finding a cause for autism is unlikely.

"Given that a great deal of research on autism and other pediatric diseases in hospitals and medical schools is currently coming to a halt because of federal funding cuts from HHS, it is very difficult for me to imagine what profound scientific breakthrough could be achieved between now and September," Landrigan said.

Other experts expressed concerns over Kennedy's past advocacy for the debunked theory that vaccines cause autism.

Alison Singer, president of the Autism Science Foundation, a nonprofit organization that funds autism research, thinks the Trump administration's autism campaign is building towards a predetermined conclusion.

"It would be a great disservice to our families if, despite plentiful and robust evidence to the contrary, the administration announces vaccines cause autism, declares the case closed and stops funding critically needed autism research that is providing valuable information about the true causes," she said.

In March, HHS hired David Geier, who has published multiple articles attempting to tie mercury in vaccines to autism, as a "senior data analyst" to study any potential links between vaccines and autism. This move has similarly concerned many experts, who said that appointing Geier to study vaccine safety preordains the outcome.

"You'd think you'd want a fresh eye," said Edward Hunter, former head of the Washington office of CDC. "This isn't a fresh eye. They have already published their results, and spending all this time and money is not going to help anyone. I am quite certain they'll come to the same conclusion."

Christopher Banks, president and CEO of the Autism Society, an educational and advocacy organization, said he is "deeply concerned by the lack of transparency around this effort — who is leading it, what methods are being used, and whether it will meet established scientific standards."

Banks added that any claims that autism is solely caused by environmental factors were "misleading theories [which] perpetuate harmful stigma, jeopardize public health, and distract from the critical needs of the autism community."