How could nationwide value-based payment for cancer care become a reality in the next 5 to 10 years? Looking to today’s market for clues, our team has envisioned three scenarios of how stakeholders could make this happen.

In each scenario, we describe what the future would look like, how it would unfold, and what it would mean for major stakeholders in healthcare — and what to do if this future doesn’t look rosy for your organization.

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In this series, we dive into three scenarios — some approachable, others harder to imagine.

• Scenario 1 : Employers, supported by health plans, pursue steerage to value-based cancer providers.
• Scenario 2 : At-risk primary care groups enter sub-capitation arrangements with high-value cancer providers.
• Scenario 3 : A third-party organization develops and scales a standard oncology value-based payment model.

For each one, we answer:

• How could the scenario unfold? How would it catalyze value-based cancer care?
• What would make it possible? What realities stand in the way?
• If this happens, what would the implications be for key industry stakeholders like independent cancer practices, hospitals and health systems, and health plans?

Part one of our series examines employers, supported by health plans, pursuing steerage to value-based cancer providers.